A Bayesian Network-Based Probabilistic Framework for Drought Forecastingand Outlook

Collection with item attached
2016
Item details URL
http://open-repository.kisti.re.kr/cube/handle/open_repository/473468.do
DOI
10.1155/2016/9472605
Title
A Bayesian Network-Based Probabilistic Framework for Drought Forecastingand Outlook
Description
This research was supported by grants from the Water Management ResearchProgram (14AWMP-B079364-01) and National Research Foundation(NRF-2013R1A1A2013160) funded by the Korean Government.
abstract
Reliable drought forecasting is necessary to develop mitigation plans to cope with severe drought. This study developed a probabilistic scheme for drought forecasting and outlook combined with quantification of the prediction uncertainties. The Bayesian network was mainly employed as a statistical scheme for probabilistic forecasting that can represent the cause-effect relationships between the variables. The structure of the Bayesian network-based drought forecasting (BNDF) model was designed using the past, current, and forecasted drought condition. In this study, the drought conditions were represented by the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The accuracy of forecasted SPIs was assessed by comparing the observed SPIs and confidence intervals (CIs), exhibiting the associated uncertainty. Then, this study suggested the drought outlook framework based on probabilistic drought forecasting results. The overall results provided sufficient agreement between the observed and forecasted drought conditions in the outlook framework.
provenance
Made available in Cube on 2018-09-28T10:20:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0
language
English
author
Shin, Ji Yae
Ajmal, Muhammad
Yoo, Jiyoung
Kim, Tae-Woong
accessioned
2018-09-28T10:20:24Z
available
2018-09-28T10:20:24Z
issued
2016
citation
ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY
issn
1687-9309
uri
http://open-repository.kisti.re.kr/cube/handle/open_repository/473468.do
Funder
국토교통부
Funding Program
물관리연구
Project ID
1615008443
Jurisdiction
Rep.of Korea
Project Name
물안보 강화를 위한 선제적 가뭄/하천건천화 평가 및 예측기술 개발
rights
openAccess
type
article


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